Let’s get the obligatory statements out of the way that *should* satisfy the fact-checkers, but probably still won’t.
- Covid 19 is a real thing.
- The Covid vaccine so far appears to be safe for most people.
- Free people have a right to decide their own levels and area of risk. Getting or passing on the vaccine does not make you a good or bad person.
Now, with that out of the way, I want to explore this goofy lottery in the State of Ohio where they want to give you a shot (see what I did there?) at $1 Million if you get the vaccine.
Is it worth it? If you were a poker player counting your “outs” against the pot would it be a good bet?
Let’s look. The Columbus Dispatch recently reported the details of their lottery—including (down towards the bottom) the odds of winning a $1 Million prize.
They list it as 1 in 4.88 million. To be fair, while huge, that’s nearly three times more likely than winning the $1 million powerball.
So that is the potential “pot.” What is that up against?
The CDC uses the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System to closely monitor reports of death following covid-19 vaccination (their words). There are lots of adverse effects, but let’s go to the big one: death.
According to the VAERS database there were 4647 reports of covid vaccine related deaths out of 273 million administered doses.
That works out to 1 in 58,747. A tiny risk, to be sure. BUT, here is what this means for the wager.
Odds of winning the grand prize: 1 in 4,880,000
Odds of dying from the vaccine: 1 in 58,747
That’s a pretty significant difference. You are 82 TIMES MORE LIKELY to die from the vaccine than you are to win the million dollars!
How to visualize this better?
Imagine I have a sack into which I drop 81 green poker chips. I then add 1 blue poker chip.
I shake the bag, and then tell you to close your eyes, reach in, and grab a chip.
If you are lucky enough to grab that 1 blue chip, I’ll give you $1 Million.
If you grab one of the 81 green chips, I throw you off a cliff.
Feel like taking that deal? No, I didn’t think so.
What’s the lesson here?
If you planned on getting the covid vaccine anyway for other reasons, fine. The lottery is just a bonus for you.
But if the enticement of the million dollar lottery is enough to change your mind, you are a fool. That is just a sick game significantly more likely to kill you than let you win. If your governor believes that this lottery will change your mind, it just shows that he thinks you to be a fool.
And what does that say about the various other incentive lotteries some other states are toying with where the prize is significantly less?
Vaccine incentive lotteries are a perverse joke whose only purpose is to proclaim how stupid your “leaders” believe you to be.
P.S. There is, of course, the reality that the VAERS death counts are “unconfirmed.” Meaning that those people did die after getting the vaccine but that the CDC has not done an investigation to determine the cause of death. It is fine and true to bring that up. However, if you do, be prepared to have the SAME conversation about how covid death totals were themselves counted. Inconsistency is the sign of a failed argument.
I also haven’t accounted for all of the VAERS reports that are bad, but short of dying. When you slog through all those nuances the conclusion is still true: vaccine lotteries are a fool’s wager.